El componente aleatorio mide la variabilidad de las series de tiempo después de retirar los otros componentes. Contabiliza la variabilidad aleatoria en una serie de tiempo ocasionada por factores imprevistos y no recurrentes. La mayoría de los componentes irregulares se conforman de variabilidad aleatoria. Sin embargo, ciertos sucesos a veces impredecibles como huelgas, cambios de clima (sequías, inundaciones o terremotos), elecciones, conflictos armados o la aprobación de asuntos legislativos, pueden causar irregularidades en una variable.
El gráfico No. 3.1. es un ejemplo de exploración de patrón de datos, donde se puede apreciar la tendencia, la estacionalidad, los ciclos y la aleatoriedad.
2016-3-19 xiaozhengm
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